The Choice of a common stock is a single act, its ownership is a continuing process. Certainly there is just as much reason to exercise care and judgment in being a shareholder as in becoming one. – Banjamin Graham and David Dodd.
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Roubini – will be the first to call a bottom… earnings to surprise on the downside… believes this is a bear market rally… many emerging markets are in trouble… risk of depression has been reduced due to massive government stimulus in the last few months…spike on gold due to risk aversion and fear of depression, near term bearish on gold… emphasizes integrated approach to recovery – monetary and fiscal stimulus, address toxic assets, assist emerging markets, etc… investing in cash at the margin in the last few years…
Sprott – is long gold and short US stocks…"staying bearish is the route to go"…does not believe the commodity boom will resume due to massive leverage that must be reduced… de-leveraging means "no loans for 10 years"… governments are now the only buyer of toxic assets… sees "utter financial collapse"… bullish on gold…
Whitney – banks have reaped recently on their mortgage-backed security holdings and likely to reap balance sheet earnings from the recent mark-to-market accounting changes… says the greatest export from the US in recent years has been financial services but going forth the US needs to export something other than leverage… sees housing prices in the US falling another 30%… predicts we will see another leg down on the subprime mortgage sector… says Americans use credit cards as cash flow management-over 45% of Americans revolve every month on their cards -but credit card lines are being cut by $2.7 Trillion, meaning massive "pay cuts" and drastic cuts in spending… predicts banks likely to sell assets and the sooner they sell, the better prices they will get… foresees going back to a 1980s style banking system -local banks serving local customers on basic banking needs…
Gordon – takes a cycle perspective based on the Kondratieff long wave… says we are now in the deflationary depression cycle, characterized by a washing of all debt… favors gold as the investment of choice… says stocks will drop at least 90% from the peak, target of Dow 1000… depression does not end until 2020…
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Ten principles for a Black Swan-proof world (By Nassim Taleb)
What is fragile should break early while it is still small. Nothing should ever become too big to fail.
No socialisation of losses and privatisation of gains. Whatever may need to be bailed out should be nationalised; whatever does not need a bail-out should be free, small and risk-bearing.
People who were driving a school bus blindfolded (and crashed it) should never be given a new bus.
Do not let someone making an “incentive” bonus manage a nuclear plant – or your financial risks.
Counter-balance complexity with simplicity.
Do not give children sticks of dynamite, even if they come with a warning .
Only Ponzi schemes should depend on confidence. Governments should never need to “restore confidence”.
Do not give an addict more drugs if he has withdrawal pains.
Citizens should not depend on financial assets or fallible “expert” advice for their retirement.
Make an omelette with the broken eggs.
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If I look at last nine months, a probable reason for decline in the price of bullion from 06/2008 to 10/2008 is points to unwinding in stocks i.e. money required by financial firm against the falling stocks raised by dumping bullions and rise in bullion after the belongs to government stimulus packages.
Comments pls…
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An amazing image to describe the Money Cycle
Source: Unknown
Posted under Finance
I'm Gurinder nesting in UK working as a Software Engineer in Telecom. I started this blog to note down my activities; mainly regarding financial engineering and news. It's not to advise someone, just mear to record for myself; although comments are more than welcome. More interested in my life its here.
